WSJ-0203-China Must Clearly Communicate Currency Policies to Markets

后中等收入经济体的门户开放——国际涉世对华夏的启示;举世经济与中华经济:新周期依旧旧周期?毛曾外祖父国际化的中标注解及其可行路线

2/3/2016-1

Offshore RMB Market Monitor – The Bond Connect and its market
implications

后中等收入经济体的对外开放——国际经历对中夏族民共和国的引导

原来的小说链接:

    With the Bond Connect between Mainland China and Hong Kong bond
marketlikely to be launched in early July, both Mainland and Hong Kong
regulators havereleased more details about the regulation and operation
of the program. ChinaDevelopment Bank and Agriculture Development Bank
of China announced thattheir domestic benchmark bond issuance next week
(July 3rd and 4th) will, forthe first time ever, accept subscriptions
from both domestic and global investors,hinting the program can be
operational as soon as next Monday. In a recentreport, we highlight a
few key features of the program and assess its near-termand medium-term
market implications.

作者:邹静娴 张斌

http://www.wsj.com/articles/lew-china-must-clearly-communicate-currency-policies-to-markets-1454511228

    Specifically, Bond Connect ensures full accessibility of China’s
67.6trn RMBfixed income market; We expect investment inflows via the
Bond Connect to bemodest initially and reiterate our view of
USD700-800bn bond market inflowsover the next five years; Acceleration
in China’s financial integration with theglobal market will boost RMB
internationalization; Finally, in terms of the impacton the offshore and
onshore RMB markets, we see manageable liquidity risk tooffshore RMB
money market, expect offshore investor demand to be supportiveto CGBs
and policy bank bond market, expect the Bond Connect to strengthenthe
convergence trend between onshore and offshore interest rates markets.
Webelieve the development of the offshore RMB bond market now hinges on
towhat extent it can differentiate itself from the onshore RMB market in
termsof issuers, funding advantages and fixed income product types.
Until then, weexpect offshore RMB bond market growth to remain stagnant

内容提要:在阅世了八十余年的敏捷经济提升后,以人均GDP权衡,中中原人民共和国已经进入后中等收入级次。在下一步由中高收益级次迈向高收入阶段的历程中,大家目的在于从国际经验中计算一些规律性事实。本文依据分歧国度在上游收入级次停留的时日长度,把国家分为三类(前沿国家,赶上并超过成功国家,赶上并超过失利国家),然后分别从外贸、投资、汇率制度和资金财产账户开放等多维度开展比较。结果展现,赶上并超过成功国家管用地降低了与前方国家的区别,而追赶失败国家却在少数方面现身了赶上并超过的停滞。从机制上看,对外开放政策的功利在于它勉励了市镇竞争,提升了要素全世界配置的效用,同有时候有利于了家产升高和布局转型。此外,适当的汇率制度以致严格的本金账户开放政策对于保证宏观情状的牢固性具备至关首要意义。

Lew: China Must Clearly Communicate Currency Policies to Markets

关键词:后中等收入级次 中等收入陷阱 开放政策 国际经历

WASHINGTON—U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew urged Chinese Vice Premier
Wang Yang late Tuesday to ensure Beijing’s transition to a
market-determined exchange rate is “orderly and transparent,” and said
authorities need to clearly communicate their policies and actions to
markets.

Opening-up in the Upper Middle-Income Phase — Implications from
International Experiences

Mr. Lew’s comments, made in a phone call Tuesday night, came as China’s
mixed messages on currency policy have spurred global market
turmoil.Investors are eyeing China’s yuan policy as a signal of
whether growth in the world’s second-largest economy might be
stalling
(停住).

Zou Jingxian and Zhang Bin

“Secretary Lew and Vice Premier Wang continued their discussion on the
importance of China making its transition to a market-determined
exchange rate in anorderly and transparent way, whileclearly
communicating
its policies and actions to the market,” the U.S.
Treasury said Wednesday.

After expanding rapidly for more than thirty years, China has stepped
into the upper middle-income phase in terms of per capita GDP. Now the
country can draw from international experiences to help it transition
from the upper middle-income to the high-income phase. Classifying
countries into three groups (i.e. frontier, successful catch-ups and
failed catch-ups) in accordance with the durations they stay in the
middle-income stage, this article compares those three groups from the
aspects of foreign trade, investment, exchange rate regime and capital
account openness, and finds that the successful catch-ups have managed
to narrow their gaps with frontiers, while failed catch-ups have
remained at the bottom or even stagnant in some aspects. The article
argues that opening-up policies are beneficial since they encourage
market competition, improve the efficiency of global resource
allocation, and boost industrial upgrading and structural
transformation; meanwhile, a proper exchange rate regime and prudent
capital account opening-up are key to ensuring a country’s macroeconomic
stability.

China has said it is transitioning the yuan awayfrom a dollar peg,
allowinggreater market influenceon the currency’s value. It has also
said it intends totarget a basket of currencies澳门新蒲京app下载,. Last year,
China’ssurprise 2% devaluationspooked(惊吓)investors, who initially
thought themove was the beginning of larger devaluation and a
last-ditch
(无退路的State of Qatareffort to stimulate a
decelerating(减速的)economy
. Chinese officials have since sought
toclarify their policies, but the yuan’s value and questions about
Beijing’s true intent have left many investors wary(谨慎的)and markets
on edge(紧张).

天下经济与华夏经济:新周期照旧旧周期?

Chinese officials have in recent weeks said the government recognizes
the need forclearer communicationin order to avoid
roiling(搅浑)global markets.

作者:程实 张明 陈兴动 朱海斌 张斌 钟正生 殷剑峰 肖立晟 姚枝仲
徐奇渊 吴庆

At a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland last
month,IMFManaging DirectorChristine
Lagardesuggested
the need for better
communication,
saying it would be helpful for China in managing its current economic
transition.

编者按:二〇一八年2月5日,由中中原人民共和国世界管管理学会、《国际经济研讨》编辑部进行的“环球经济与中华经济:新周期照旧旧周期?”主旨研究商讨会在京城举行。与会学者围绕全世界经济和华夏经济多少个议题进行了生硬的座谈。现刊出经发言者本身审定的视角。

“We should do a better job,” Fang Xinghai, a senior economic adviser to
the Chinese leadership, said on the panel. “We’re learning and doing it.
I’m here to communicate.”

World Economy and China’s Economy: New or Old Cycle?

Many economists say the fate of the global economy hangs on whether
China cansmoothly transition from a credit-fueled, export-led model to
one based more on domestic consumption, including managing a dangerous
buildup of debt and overcapacity. That policy overhaul(翻修)is needed to
ensure the country can continue to grow at healthy rates, helping to
drive global growth instead of sap(衰竭)output around the world.

Cheng Shi, Zhang Ming, Chen Xingdong, Zhu Haibin, Zhang Bin, Zhong
Zhengsheng, Yin Jianfeng, Xiao Lisheng, Yao Zhizhong, Xu Qiyuan and Wu
Qing

“Secretary Lew reiterated(反复的)the importance ofChina supporting
household
income and rebalancing towardsconsumption-led growth,
including throughappropriate fiscal policies,” Treasury said.
“Secretary Lew expressed confidence that if China implements the reforms
it has set out, it has the necessary tools tosupport domestic demand
and succeed in this economic transition
(过渡).

The China Society of World Economics and the editorial board of the
International Economic Review journal co-organized a symposium themed
World Economy and China’s Economy: New or Old Cycle? on January 5 in
Beijing. Renowned economics scholars and experts participated in the
meeting and discussed topics related to world economy and the Chinese
economy. Their views, after being approved by themselves, are published
in this journal.


毛曾祖父国际化的功成名就表明及其可行路线——
一个“有保有压”具备中华夏儿女民共和国特点的拉动政策

小说大要:

中国现行反革命正在由fixed exchange rate过渡到flexible exchange
rate,某个牛人感觉本国须要将该policy更清晰传达给周围大伙儿,并且提议中夏族民共和国经济前进对国内外经济前进的主要,以至将市道变化成consumption-led
growth型经济的供给性。

作者:刘建丰 潘英丽

民用体会:

一个国家的经济政策推动的震慑真大啊……不知道。想要产生consumption-led
growth的经济,首先要让大伙儿有信心啊,让民众有信念以至有一个efficient
market,政党clearly communicate its policy就根本吧。

内容提要:毛伯公国际化是叁个系统工程。什么是“好的RMB国际化”?本文认为,毛外公国际化推动进度是不是拿走成功的标识:一是在力促的每一个手续中,毛外祖父汇率话语权是不是由中华夏族民共和国在岸集镇上中资金融机构主导,而非由离岸集镇上别样质量的国际金融机构左右;並且中央银行能或无法对市镇货币的比率生势保持低本钱的影响力;二是友好邻邦颇有的境外人民币直接计价基金的报酬率能或不可能当先在岸市集的同类基金收益率,或然起码持久牢固地为正收益。毛爷爷国际化推动的机要目标国应以富能源国和东南亚及中亚“风华正茂带合作”沿线国家为主。大家可在此些国家力推天然气与矿石等大批判货品的毛外祖父直接计价和付钱;进行越来越多的净受益超越国内水平的毛外祖父境外直接投融资;帮助创制和前行越多的出品面向全世界市镇、部分返销中黄炎子孙民共和国市道,并以毛外公计价和付账的加工业和贸易易行业园区;同期在中华夏族民共和国本国加速培养和提高有所广度和纵深的、安全性和流动性优良的国家公债和准国家公债券市场镇,并合时有序地门户开放。为此,本文建议了叁个“有保有压”具备中华夏族民共和国特色的货币国际化推动政策。

相关知识:

Exchange Rate System

Fixed Exchange Rate: (peg)

定义:二个国家把温馨的钱币跟某国家(如美利坚合众国)或某多少个国家(这本人不知是咋弄的)挂钩,如无大事儿就一向粘着人家。比如决定1日币换6rmb,平素保持不改变。

福寿绵绵格局:central bank参加商场,通过扩展及收缩money
supply来调整商场上钱币流通量,进而影响interest rate,从而有限扶助货币的比率不改变。

好处:长期内维持市镇牢固?因为投资人知道本人投资到本地市集的市场总值(货币的比率已知),由此更放心大胆投资。

坏处:central bank供给有大量钱财储备来满意维持fixed
rate.但当国内货币比起规定货币的比价更不值钱的时候,若广大大伙儿知道此消息就能够跑去银行换外汇,(因为精通持有的国内货币是垃圾),那样银行就一点也不慢run
out of reserve。当reserve不足,fixed exchange
rate崩。(索罗斯好像用了这一个艺术来怎样的,叫做speculative
attack,正是他明白那个时候某国的钱币实际价值超级低,就大气换外汇,逼到银行无路可退最后只可以够发布devaluation,他的目标就高达了。别的忘记了)

Flexible Exchange Rate:

统统由商场的决定exchange rate.

应当就是文中的market-determined exchange rate

Devaluation

专指有fixed exchange rate system的central
bank(or政党?)刻意将货币贬值的表现

关键词:毛曾外祖父国际化 离岸人民币行当园区 密封式跨境毛外祖父交易互连网

句子通晓与纠缠:

第二段

Investors are eyeing China’s yuan policy as a signal of whether growth
in the world’s second-largest economy might be stalling

缘何从当中华的policy就会看出来中中原人民共和国经济处境,咋看的?

第四段

Last year, China’s surprise 2% devaluation spooked(惊吓卡塔尔 investors,
who initially thought the move was the beginning of larger devaluation
and a last-ditch(无退路的State of Qatar effort to stimulate a decelerating(减速的卡塔尔国economy. Chinese officials have since sought to clarify their policies,
but the yuan’s value and questions about Beijing’s true intent have left
many investors wary(严谨的State of Qatar and markets on edge(恐慌State of Qatar.

二〇一八年中华能够将货币贬值,让investor人为那是指向刺激减速经济的最终风度翩翩道防线。小编的敞亮是因为devaluation能够激起出口,打击进口,推进本土公司进步,扩展aggregate
demand/gdp,是那意思?

会吓到investor的案由是还是不是因为investment中exchange rate至关心重视要?

不超过实际际上那并不是devaluation,而是中黄炎子孙民共和国调节利用flexible exchange
rate所以导致的结果?

为毛改成flexible exchange rate公众就不恐惧了?

第八段

Many economists say the fate of the global economy hangs on whether
China cansmoothly transition from a credit-fueled, export-led model to
one based more on domestic consumption, including managing a dangerous
buildup of debt and overcapacity. That policy overhaul(翻修)is needed to
ensure the country can continue to grow at healthy rates, helping to
drive global growth instead of sap(衰竭)output around the world.

几眼下华夏的风貌是借贷相当多,出口导向型。可是众三个人以为世界经济的开采进取决意于中国是还是不是能够更加多based
on domestic consumption
(便是gdp里面包车型大巴C-CmState of Qatar,更加好地处理debt和overcapacity。(为何?)

华夏于今咋就无法drive global growth,咋就能sap output around the
world,咋就不healthy了?

第九段

“Secretary Lew reiterated(反复的)the importance ofChina supporting
household
income and rebalancing towardsconsumption-led growth,
including throughappropriate fiscal policies,” Treasury said.
Secretary Lew expressed confidence that if China implements the
reforms it has set out, it has the necessary tools to support domestic
demand and succeed in this economic transition(过渡).”

接受fiscal policy(改换税收/退换government spending)来support household
income/rebalancing towards consumption-led growth

什么样做到?借使fiscal policy让aggregate demand增添,商场unemployment
rate收缩,是或不是扩张大伙儿信心,于是就激励购买行为?那意味吧?

全然不懂了当今不是在说退换exchange
rate的专门的学问吗关这一个啥事儿?最终一句话,reform指的是exchange rate
system?transition指什么?过渡到consumption-led?

RMB Internationalization: A Strategy with Chinese Characteristics

Liu Jianfeng and Pan Yingli

RMB internationalization is a systematic program. What is a
“high-quality RMB internationalization”? This article argues that
indications of successful RMB internationalization go as follows: First,
during each step of the process, whether the RMB exchange rate is
dominated by Chinese-funded financial institutions in the onshore market
rather than by other types of international financial institutions in
the offshore market; and whether the central bank can maintain a
low-cost influence on the market exchange rate’s movements; second,
whether the rate of return of the China-held RMB-denominated assets
issued by other countries exceeds the yield of similar assets in the
onshore market, or at least the rate of return can be kept positive,
stable and sustainable. The potential target countries for promoting RMB
internationalization should mainly be countries with rich resources,
Southeast Asian nations, and Central Asian countries involved in the
Belt and Road Initiative. We can encourage those countries to directly
use RMB for pricing and settlement of commodities, such as crude oil and
ores, carry out more RMB-denominated outbound direct investment and
financing with higher net yields than in the domestic market, and help
them establish and develop more processing trade industrial parks, where
the manufactured products will be sold to other countries, including
China, using RMB for pricing and settlement; at the same time, we should
speed up cultivation and development of treasury bond and
quasi-government bond markets with large scale, high sophistication,
good safety and ample liquidity, which should be opened to the outside
world at an appropriate time and in an orderly way. To that end, this
article proposes a strategy with Chinese characteristics for promoting
RMB internationalization that adjusts the tempo of the process in
accordance with changing situation.

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